Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush took a first step toward a 2016 presidential run Friday when he led a Miami gathering of Republican insiders mapping out how to appeal to Hispanics in future national campaigns.
Bush, the brother and son of the two last Republican presidents, George W. Bush and George H.W. Bush, is at the heart of those GOP Latino-wooing dreams for both personal and political reasons.
“His Hispanic family ties and his pro-Latino record make Jeb Bush the face of any serious Republican effort to extend a sincere olive branch to Hispanic voters,” says California consultant William Orozco.
Bush’s wife is Mexican-American. He speaks Spanish fluently. And Bush himself has a long history advocating a comprehensive immigration reform.
But Bush’s Achilles Heel in seeking the 2016 nomination, say critics, is the suspicion of him by conservatives and Tea Partiers, though the 2012 presidential campaign debacle may have softened their strength
“I feel confident the governor would dispel any concerns about his conservative bona fides the minute he entered the race, if he does,” says longtime Bush friend Al Cardenas, former head of the Florida GOP and chairman of the American Conservative Union.
Cardenas also has told reporters since last November’s election that seeking the presidency “continues to intrigue him, given how much he has to share with the country.”
The Miami meeting Friday was organized by the Hispanic Leadership Network, a conservative group intent on broadening the Republican Party’s appeal among Hispanic voters, especially in the 2014 mid-term elections.
Cardenas’ American Conservative Union has removed any doubt of how quickly the jockeying for 2016 is happening with its 2013 CPAC March 14-16 in Washington, D.C., that is developing as a possible preview to the Republican presidential field.
Bush and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio are among the announced featured speakers along with new Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Sen. Jim DeMint of South Carolina and New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez.
Early GOP favorites for 2016 also include New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Mitt Romney’s vice presidential candidate Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman.
A recent Florida Insider Poll of more than 100 of Florida’s most important political campaign operatives, fundraisers, lobbyists and insiders found that 62 percent expect Bush to run in 2016 while only 45 percent think Rubio will.
Meanwhile, another survey of 400 Latino voters in each of four key states – Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Florida – lambasted the GOP for failing connect with Hispanic voters.
“The results make clear the size of the hole Republicans have dug among Hispanic voters over the past eight years,” the survey’s authors reported.
“If Republicans achieve 40 percent or more of Hispanics nationally, they can elect conservative Republicans to national office. Settling for a quarter or less of the Hispanic vote nationally will relegate Republicans to a regional party with few national prospects.”
It is largely to try to answer the challenges posed by that study that Friday’s meeting was taking place, according to a national Republican insider.
Jeb Bush, the insider said, is riding a tidal wave of credibility because of his Hispanic connections and favorability among Latinos.
In California, though, some Republicans close to Bush are concerned that the former governor may only be using this time as a stalking horse for Rubio, who has been like a protégé.
“We know Jeb and we would rally around him in an instant,” said the California supporter. “We don’t know Marco, and Jeb may just be clearing the field of other likely contenders for him as well as lining up contributors so that they don’t align themselves with anyone else.”
But clearly Jeb Bush already has a strong base.
Florida political blogger Steve Kurlander calls him “the most formidable — and electable — candidate for the Republican Party right now.”
“Jeb, with his successful record as governor and his recent realistic stances in addressing major inadequacies in the GOP’s positions on immigration and social issues, is the only national figure in the Republican stable who can both turn around the GOP and run nationwide and, possibly, win in 2016,” writes Kurlander.
Bush’s two sons have also recently staked out their own political paths.
George P. Bush, 36, has filed paperwork in Texas for a run at becoming the state’s land commissioner. Jeb Bush Jr., 29, has founded a political action committee, Sun Pac, to promote and recruit conservative Latino political candidates.
“The old line that blood is thicker than water is never truer than in politics,” says political consultant Orozco. “And it sounds like Jeb Bush’s family is circling the wagons to do something big.”